this christmas, the tiresome dinners and family get togethers are sure to become less dull if any of your extended family members bother to know what's going on in ottawa. chance to get into a heated debate with those pesky turned-american relatives on the merits of publicly funded healthcare and why as always bound to be a critical issue in the campaign. if not, dinner will be boring as usual.

and unless you live in a rural riding, this whole voting in the winter isn't that big of a deal. if anything, it's more work for the media per se. that's the whole misery about the january election. reminds me of that jon stewart skit in the runup to the 2000 US election where one of the reporters is sent to either iowa, vermont or some other desolate state during a winter month. it's fucking cold to be reporting out here. no one's bitching about this other than journalists. you'll get a chance to get out of the house as there isn't much you can do on a winter's monday evening. why not vote?

it seems that just a mere 17 months ago, we found ourselves in a rather similar position heading into federal election: same leaders, same issues, same "gripping" scandal. the only change this time is likely the change in weather when we head to the polls in january.

how does canada fair any differently than it did prior to june 28th 2004? same sex marriage is legal. people know the name jack layton. the sexy, yes that's right, the sexy belinda stronach--in that milf kinda way--is a liberal. and stephen harper is still a boob that central canada is scared off.

should we expect a different result? seeing as nothing has changed in the past year and a half, you would think liberals are bound for another minority government and the opposition parties becoming bedfellows with whoever at the most politically opportunitistic time.

but if history is any indication, minority governments heading into an election tend come back with a majority. the only exception was joe clark's 1979 conservative minority government fall that paved way for a liberal government.

the only major change this time around is the way the public perceives the ongoing corruption scandal surrounding the liberals. unless you live in quebec, quite frankly, the novelty of yet another corrupt liberal government has worn off. and certainly, there is nothing novel about corrupt liberals; it is canadian as maple syrup. then again, you can't marginalize the effect of the sponsorship scandal as it has contributed the current mood in quebec and breathed new life into the seperatists. expect another strong bloc vote in quebec, scattered liberal support, and quebecois continue to scoff harper as dubya-lite.

strategy for the conservatives? shake off the image as a fanatic right-winged party ran by western populist politicians. previously, fear mongering worked well for the liberals and certainly they'll be banking on regaining support in ontario by frightening the voters. since 2004, harper has done nothing to shake off that preception and is not helping himself by today announcing the first thing he wants to do is have a free-vote on same sex legislation. you don't want to start off a campaign but rehashing an issue that's already been settled. and certainly nothing as decisive as same-sex marriage. shit, even the supreme court gave gay marriage a green light. way to start the campaign harper!

the ndp under layton are in a tough position. out of the three leaders, layton has been the most effective but come campaigning, the liberals will paint the ndp as the wasted vote: a vote for ndp is a vote for harper. and looking at the polls with liberals and conservatives neck and neck, layton faces an uphill battle of reaching out to swing voters who support the ndp but at the same time are fearful of a conservative government. if liberals can maintain a 4-5 point lead in the polls way into the campaign, things look good for ndp. but if the polls fluctuate throughout, voters just may settle for martin to avoid the prospects of harper as the next pm. of course, layton has a stronger standing than he did in 2004 and the siphoning of votes tactic may be a harder sell.

the strategy for paul martin? seeing as there isn't much of a record to run on no matter what his party says, it's going to be about painting harper's conservatives as right-winged boogie man and telling voters not to waste their ballot with the ndp.

deja vote indeed.