in early september, prime minister harper drove the canadians to the polls for the third time in four years. certainly, the environment was ripe for the results he was seeking. after incremental gains in the past elections--first reducing the liberal dynasty to a minority, then himself forming a minority--2008 was as good as a chance as harper had to grasp a conservative majority.

the main rivals, liberals, were in shambles. with no money, no leadership, and a platform that didn't make any tractions with canadians even before the conservatives dropped the writ, mr. harper was in good of a position as a leader would've been. certainly, political intuition suggests the state of the liberals these days makes their party unelectable and barring any major conservatives gaffs, their campaign should've been anything but a formality towards forming the first conservative government in 20 years.

so what went wrong? why is today's parliament similar--albeit a "bulkier" conservative caucus? who is the real loser of the elections; liberal's under dion troubled leadership or harper, who appears to have taken the conservative movement as far as possibly could.

the story of the election largely centres on the narrative that was created in the province of quebec. with the government's tame decision to cut $45 million in arts funding out of a $200 billion budget turned deathly costly as an attack on arts and culture funding. within no time, the strides made by harper over the last few years to get his foot in the province's door were shut and support flooded back to the bloc. certainly, harper's now infamous quote that working canadians do not want to turn on their television and see an arts gala for the rich subsidized by canadians' taxpayers.

the funding and comment took a life on its own in quebec as the province's artistic community felt harper's quote was directly aimed at them. they took their message to the media and proved successful in their campaign of culture in danger . the tone of the debate was no longer about $45 million cutbacks to the arts community but quebec versus ottawa as a direct attack on the province's cultural uniqueness. the comment resonate beyond the borders of quebec and knowing people working in the arts community here in ontario, harper's words were seen as mean, derogatory. harper, being so persistent, in keeping his party's caucus muzzled from any potentially hazardous commentary himself threw this year's words to weaken conservative support. over the weekend, jeffrey simpson of the globe & mail offered a wonderful essay on Quebec's mental block and struggles felt by anyone trying to woo quebec onside of a federalist party.

for all of the conservatives ability to run a tight ship and stay on the message, it too proved costly. in mid campaign, as the financial meltdown was felt in every part of the world, including canada, harper felt this is a good time for canadians to buy. no campaign manager wants to run an election just as the stock markets are losing nearly 1 000 points on a daily basis, but that too proved the thorn in the side of the conservatives, in their inability to adapt to any sudden changes. his comments bordered on insane or just frustration he lost his ability to control the message as in the prior stages of the campaign. he proved himself to be cranky and unwillingly to face the fact issues arise regardless of whether the government frame them or not. no surprise, conservative support started dipping and there was the slight potential liberals may actually come out with the slightest minority with day of the tanking stock markets.

with three cracks at a majority government and the latest as good as a chance as he'll get, there is potential at grumbling within the conservative party for new leadership atop. the coming times are likely to prove difficult for harper. governing in times of economic growth versus the looming contraction and struggles to balance the budget, the conservatives will be tested. they of course have the advantage of an opposition in shambles and unlikely to force canadians back to the polls.

as commonly quoted, harper broke his own law by calling this election, that piece of legislation too can come in handy and his government several years to govern while the opposition get their organizations in order.

though the elections did not prove much and canadians are faced with the same fractured parliament, harper avoids the potential election early next year when the economic mess is likely to intensify. a calculated risk that didn't produce a majority but bought time. also, an ample opportunity to judge his ability to economically manage the nation.

if given a fourth chance and able to cushion canada's economic downturn, harper just might get what he seeks so much.