i woke this morning and looked out the window to make there wasn't any soldiers or tanks rolling in the streets.
all with the government accusing the opposition of staging a coup
d'etat and installing it's own PM, sounds reminiscent of some great revolution of the past.
so the developments of the past 24 hours suggest the opposition parties are not backing down for pushing forward and toppling the government. with the rhetoric of last few days and now officially announcing the coalition has a particular timeline and how it'll be structured; it's hard to believe they'll back off now with this teasing.
the most contentious aspect is their selection as
stephane dion as the interim prime minister until a new leader is chosen next spring. this is the same
dion that was overwhelming rejected by the
canadian voters mere weeks ago and left on the curb his fellow party mates. rather perplexing that next week he may become the country's next prime minister. while i have my reservations about this, what else is there to do? he is still the leader of the official opposition and according to our constitution, his ascendancy to prime minister is legal, yet, hard to grasp by most
canadians. the hardest the coalition faces is selling
thhe idea of
dion as the prime minister. even tougher in the spring when the liberals choose a new leader that automatically moves into 24
sussex. no one chooses that pm other than the liberal party members and according to the coalition accord could be prime minister for well over a year before facing the electorate. of course we saw this
kim campbell's short helm as the country's pm and her subsequent defeat eventually can attributed with the collapse of the progressive conservatives. going out on a limb here, but liberals are charting into politics never seen in this country.
in the
harper camp, it's full panic mode. to suggest he might prorogue parliament is more dangerous than
dion as the prime minister. constitutional experts call that option an unprecedented and undemocratic as the prime minister in essence is running away from his own defeat by shutting down parliament. such talks throws us back to bygone eras where the kings shut the doors on the legislature to avoid hearing what they did not want to.
but life is not a video game that
harper can just his the reset button and try again with a new throne speech and economic announcement in
january when parliament would resume again. to think the
PMO is actually considering this option is frightening. it reveals the disdain the conservatives have for the democratic process that they would run and hide from from a parliament of which they make up the minority of. understandably election is not a credible option, every canadian throwing around the statistic the typicall election costs $300 million, which produced nothing six weeks ago, why do it again? the electorate is likely to punish the conservatives this time for dissolving parliament as soon as harper made his first mistake.
proroguing the parliament can result in two outcomes: galvanize the opposition to bring down the government once (whenever that is) resumes or simply in time, they'll lose their momentum. the break neck speed of which all developments have happened so far means there has been little room for reflection and ability to gauge the murky waters the opposition find itself in. perhaps, the winter break will give
gilles a chance to realize that his signature on the coalition accord could be politically damaging in
quebec; the separatist leader working with the federalists.
suspending parliament would buy time for
harper in that he can come up with some credible economic package on which the opposition cannot vote down. for example,
harper can offer to write the auto sector a blank cheque over the next 10 years and give
layton little maneuvering room to vote against the government. rather than cutting the party subsidy,
harper can offer to raise it from 1.95 to say 2.25 for every vote. suddenly, the reason we find ourselves in this political crisis becomes awash with more rather than less dollars being thrown out. hard to believe
harper would lay out either of these options, but they would corner the opposition into essentially voting against what they stand for.
right now it seems most
canadians are skeptical of the coalition but if
harper suspends parliament the table will shift and likely the public will see a government that is fearing to face a problem they have created. the general opinion is that this is
harper's own doing when he went for the
jugular of the opposition, however, people are less responsive their reaction that the government now must be toppled. scanning the news comment sites (yes, bad way to gauge public opinion) there is concern that this high-stakes political drama is really necessary at a time like this.
harper needs to either move over and let the coalition form the government. given that they are a
hodge-
podge of parties with their own political agendas, it'll be interesting their coalition holds through until 2011. and given that a new PM would come in no matter in the spring, five months from now, the coalition itself could ravel apart. the bloc is the balance of power in that coalition and their interest lie way outside of the other parties.